As I write this post the average number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 is +/- 80,000 per day since the peak at the end of March and is currently at over 3 million confirmed cases. 211,000 of the 3 million have died, however, most Western countries agree that the true number is most probably quite a bit higher. The official death rate is around 7% at the moment but not all deaths have been recorded, care homes, for example, people who died at home etc, so we can safely say the death rate is more like 10%.
As of today, there are 246 days left of 2020. The average flu pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu lasts for just one-year meaning if that happens with Covid-19 and the graph continues to average +/- 80,000 confirmed cases per day we could expect by the end of the year a total of around 2,225 000 deaths. This figure is high end as Western governments are now tentatively easing lockdown as they expect confirmed cases to continue falling.
Several key factors make the novel coronavirus pandemic a new and distinct challenge from an influenza outbreak. During flu season – even a severe one – much of the population is already immune. That’s not the case with the COVID-19 virus and a second-wave could blow the numbers above away. Another key factor is how the virus continues to take off in Africa and other poor countries, at the moment the virus appears to be attacking rich countries, if the virus explodes on the African continent like it did in the far East and the West it would be a monstrous situation as many countries having little or no health workers or equipment.
According to Business Insider, 6 monkeys given an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Oxford did not catch COVID-19 after heavy exposure, raising hopes for a human vaccine, however, this is very early days and most experts believe vaccination is at least a year away.
Here are figures from 'Our World In Data,' to compare other causes of death per year around the world: Almost 10 million people die of cancer per year and more than 50% are younger than 70 years old.
5.5 million children under 5 years old die every year.
56 million people die every year.
2.6 million people die from pneumonia every year.
5 million people die from air pollution every year.
More than 8 million people die from smoking every year with more than half under 70.
1 million people die from Aids/HIV every year, 84% are under the age of 50.
Nearly 1 billion people have mental health disorder.
The world population is about to hit 8 billion.