As the world approaches 60 million covid-19 cases and 1.5 million deaths I myself have some underlying doubts as to just what is really going on out there. Strange stories are circulating, things ain't adding up, statistics are not backing up the so-called facts. For instance, my 90-year-old father, who is very sick and in the hospital caught covid last week. The most fragile, weak and immunity compromised man you could possibly think of didn't have one symptom of this "killer" disease he was asymptomatic. His 90-year-old wife with heart disease came down with the virus and although poorly she was never in any danger.
Elon Musk tested positive and negative twice in one day last week? Despite all the fearmongering the facts are not staking up with the stats, in the UK at least. Today a report in the Daily Mail shows the incredible discrepancies we are being fed regarding the covid crisis.
In the UK, Boris Johnson and his government would have us believe the virus is running through the British Isles totally out of control but the stats tell us an entirely different story.
In a July report commissioned by Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, scientists estimated that there could be 119,000 deaths in the UK if a second spike coincided with a peak of winter flu. Yesterday, that figure stood at 54,286 – less than half that.
In fact, the second peak seems to have passed – over the past week, there has been an average of 22,287 new infections a day, down from 24,430 the week before.
In mid-September, Sir Patrick made the terrifying claim that the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October unless more draconian restrictions were introduced. Yet we have never got near that figure.
Death predictions and reality.
The Public Health England/Cambridge, led by Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty estimated by late November England would be suffering more than 4,000 deaths a day from the virus, the true data is expected to under 500, still terrible but.
We keep on hearing of hospitals not coping with dying patients lying on beds in corridors. Last month UK government experts published a chart which suggested hospitals were severely under strain and at breaking point. According to the Daily Mail, only 13% of the UK's hospital beds were actually occupied by patients with Covid-19 this week.
The average hospital bed occupancy across England, Whales and Northern Ireland in 2020 are actually slightly less than at the same time last year!!! Once again, "the number of NHS hospital beds currently occupied in England is lower than last years average."
According to the Mail, on November the 5th the most recent data available, there was actually 1,300 fewer patients in hospital beds than last year's November average.
Now get this, on November the 8th, the number of occupied hospital critical beds across the British Isles was actually lower than the 5-year average from 2015 to 2019.
The huge Knigtingale hospitals which were speedily erected earlier in the year to help combat the covid "onslaught" have NEVER been more than 1.23% occupied.
Of those who have died in England, 95% of them had at least one serious pre-existing serious medical condition. Just 42 people of people under the age of 40 have died from covid without a pre-existing medical condition.
Are more people dying than last year?
Slightly more is the answer but there is a good reason for that. In the week to November 6th, overall deaths in England stood at 11,812 which is 14.3%, 1,481 higher than the 5-year average. The death rate would be significantly lower, however, but for the fact that record-breaking heatwaves this summer killed an estimated 2,566 excess deaths according to a government study this week. Full story here
According to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures – for October 2020 – in spite of all the Covid-19 deaths, the average death rate in the over-75s was significantly lower this year than it was last October – 6,901.7 per 100,000 people, compared with 7141.7 for last year.