BUCKLE UP FOLKS! It began life as a tropical wave off West Africa and had become a tropical storm by August 11. Today, NOAA announced Erin had reached Category 5 Hurricane Status!—with peak sustained winds reaching 160 mph (255 km/h).

Green Tropical Cyclone ERIN-25 in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Virgin Islands U.S., Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda from: 11 Aug 2025 to: 16 Aug 2025. - Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph (maximum wind speed of 269 km/h)

After a couple of months of explosive, deadly weather, including record-breaking heatwaves, floods, and wildfires, as well as a plethora of massive earthquakes and a record number of volcanic eruptions, we finally record this year's first Atlantic Hurricane, and it's going to be enormous!

Credit Map, Emergency and Disaster Information Service (RSO-EDIS)

It began life as a tropical wave off West Africa and had become a tropical storm by August 11. Today, NOAA announced Erin had reached Category 5 status with peak sustained winds reaching 160 mph (255 km/h). According to AP News, its intensification was unusually fast—wind speeds more than doubled in just 24 hours, highlighting a classic case of "rapid intensification."

Hurricane Erin-25 is expected to turn North, missing the US mainland and staying offshore as it heads North. Heavy rain and flooding are expected to impact the Caribbean Islands, especially the northern Leeward Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Turks and Caicos, through the weekend. Erin is the fifth named storm, the first hurricane and the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, which NOAA are expecting to be heavy.

Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-5 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). 

The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 through November 30, and are inclusive of the four named tropical storms that have already formed. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. 

The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.

“NOAA stands ready to provide the forecasts and warnings that are vital for safeguarding lives, property, and communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued.” 

A summary infographic with a pie chart showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted, according to NOAA's updated 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on August 7, 2025. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. (See also news release text for data found within the above graphic.) (Image credit: NOAA)

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So far, the season has produced four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during the Independence Day holiday weekend. 

"No two storms are alike," said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”  

Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas, and an active West African Monsoon. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Nino nor La Nina to influence this season’s storm activity.

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centres for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service. 

The alphabetical list of 2025 Atlantic tropical cyclone names, as chosen by the World Meteorological Organisation, with storms that have occurred so far this season (as of August 7, 2025) indicated by an orange slash through the name. Find a text version of this list at hurricanes.gov/aboutnames.shtml#atl (Image credit: NOAA)

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Hurricanes and Typhoons 2025

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