tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5479630998056917994.post7352594745655986110..comments2024-03-28T13:08:43.480+01:00Comments on The Big Wobble : Covid-19: Day 59: Feb 27th: Countries affected now 48: Saudi Arabia bars pilgrims: UK Government, patients could be denied life-saving care 80% of the country could be infected: Dow Panic: Respirators selling for $10,000 on E Bay.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5479630998056917994.post-24384328161866491472020-02-27T13:26:19.987+01:002020-02-27T13:26:19.987+01:00Prof Christl Donnelly, a leading statistical epide...Prof Christl Donnelly, a leading statistical epidemiologist, has warned that based on death tolls, the outbreaks in Italy and Iran are likely to be far greater than confirmed cases in both countries suggest.<br /><br />Iran has reported 22 deaths but just 141 cases, and Italy has reported 12 deaths and 470 case.<br /><br />Donnelly who works at the University of Oxford and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, at Imperial College London, said her research suggest the number of cases in both countries is likely to be over 1,000.<br /><br />In a comment distributed by the Science Media Centre, she said:<br /><br />“It is not surprising that we have seen additional cases today. The estimate from our work at Imperial College London is that about 1% of infections with the virus responsible for covid-19 are fatal, so the total of 12 deaths to date in Italy suggests many more than the 470 cases detected so far.<br /><br />Our best estimate would be over 1000 cases. Each undetected case creates at least the potential for onward spread. This combined with frequent travel to and from affected regions, means that all countries are at risk of detecting cases both in travellers and those they came into contact with.”<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com