Friday, 7 November 2014

Harsh Winter? We could be looking at cold temperatures humans shouldn't have to bear and probably never have before!

Average snow cover extent for the latest month.
Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there’s a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter?
So in the two and a half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.
About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers snow lab
The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern U.S. In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998.
Taken together they signal greater chances for frigid air to spill out of the Arctic into more temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts, who developed the theory linking Siberian snow with winter weather.
“A rapid advance of Eurasian snow cover during the month of October favors that the upcoming winter will be cold across the Northern Hemisphere,” Cohen said in an interview yesterday. “This past October the signal was quite robust.”
There are a few steps to get from the snows of Siberia to the chills in New York City.
Cold air builds over the expanse of snow, strengthening the pressure system known as a Siberian high. The high weakens the winds that circle the North Pole allowing the cold air to leak into the lower latitudes. The term Polar Vortex actually refers to those winds, not the frigid weather.

Link all the above with the threat of the Gulf Stream stalling and is actually now colder than it should be, which is the opposite trend to the rest of the northern hemisphere sea temperatures, we could be looking at cold temperatures humans shouldn't have to bare and probably never have before!

Just over a month ago I posted an article "The Day AfterTomorrow" Is the "Gulf Stream" stalling?  a huge area of the Gulf Stream was showing a colder than normal sea surface anomaly while most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere oceans were warmer than normal, I am not an expert by any means so I am quoting NOAA here:  
Analysis from NOAA satellites shows that sea surface temperatures in September 2014 were well above normal. In fact, 60% of the Northern Hemisphere ocean surface was 0.5°C or more above the 1981-2010 average.
A vast amount of the Gulf Stream Colder than Average!
Intrigued I downloaded a screen grab from the Earth Wind Map below, which seemed to agree with the data from NOAA showing the sea surface temperature anomaly, see below, the huge area of blue being the area colder than normal, this was 11-10-14.
I went back to The Earth Wind Map today and to my shock and surprise I noticed the colder than normal area (Temperature Anomaly) had ballooned in size by nearly 300%, stretching from Iceland all the way down to the Canary Isles, (from Alaska to Mexico in comparison) see above! In just over two weeks the colder area has grown by literally thousands of square miles......27-10-14. See image above.
NOAA showing Pacific warmer and the Gulf Stream cooler than average.
 NOAA's satellite Data does agree with the  The Earth Wind Map images above but unfortunately the last update from NOAA is two and a half weeks old. Analysis from NOAA satellites shows that sea surface temperatures in September 2014 were well above normal. In fact, 60% of the Northern Hemisphere ocean surface was 0.5°C or more above the 1981-2010 average. See below. An unlabelled version can be downloaded here.
Then there is a huge part of the gulf stream bigger than the area of the US which for some reason is colder than normal and it is the part of the gulf stream the U.K. and Europe rely on to keep their ports ice free and provide a temperate winter climate.
If the gulf stream has stalled the U.K. and Europe can expect a winter of devastation!
Taking Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, (AMO) into consideration surely the colder than average area should not have grown so vast so quickly?
As I said I am no expert in this field, if any one can help us understand this anomaly please feel free to post any quote or info below, thank you.

The last time Gulf stream failed to deliver was  Winter 1962/63 The Year The Gulf Stream Stalled
What happened in England that winter was like something out of the film 'The Day After Tomorrow."
Half a century ago the UK was in the grip of a brutal winter.
Cold weather reached the UK on 22 December 1962. Snow fell across Scotland on Christmas Eve before sweeping south. The Arctic weather didn't relent until March 1963.
Central England experienced its coldest winter since 1740. Rivers, lakes, and even in places the sea, froze over.
Winter 1962/63 the last time the gulf stream stalled: Archives NOAA

The conditions made for surreal scenes - people skating in front of Buckingham Palace, a man cycling on the Thames near Windsor Bridge, a milkman doing his deliveries on skis. For 62 consecutive days, snow lay on the ground in the south of England. The next highest number of snow lying days since then is a mere 10 in 1987.
On 31 December 1962 the Times reported: "Roads were impassable at hundreds of points, many towns and villages were cut off, railways were out of action at many places or struggling against long delays on other sections, and the airports were unable till late in the day to offer landing or take-off."
But the country was not crippled. Snow ploughs were deployed and the trains - mostly steam engines - got through.
 Vegetable prices shot up by as much as 30% as crops froze in the ground. But society continued to function despite the fact that average temperatures remained below freezing for two months.
"January that year was the coldest month since 1814. There was snow everywhere and strong winds from the north and east. It was unremittingly cold. "Most of England and Wales had a blanket of snow right through the month." In February 1963 a huge snowstorm struck Northern Ireland, south west England and Wales. That led to a fall of nearly 5ft (1.5m) in Tredegar in Monmouthshire - an "outstanding amount of snow", Mr Davenport said.

Thanks to
Rutgers snow lab

Earthwind map




Karen said...

...'cold temperatures humans shouldn't have to BEAR

Anonymous said...

Of course, it is all due to Man Made Global Warming - and an immediate Global Carbon Tax needs implemented, to help finance the UN as One World Government - as soon as possible. We just know that to be true.

Anonymous said...

People really got hit hard here. The Dander is just brutal on my nose. Got to keep those cats clean this winter. And Clean the carpet as well. I rember delivering news papers in the mourning in 1976 Meanertonka, USA. it was -10 F. Peoples are getting really grouchy So I got to go.

Anonymous said...

I have seen -31 where I live in MN, and northern MN has hit -62. So this is not unusual, it is part of the normal weather pattern changes over the years.

Anonymous said...

You stay in MN, I'll go to Panama!

Anonymous said...

......"cold temperatures humans shouldn't have to bare and probably never have before!"

What!....who is this guy? I've spent the last 40 years liv'n in Fairbanks, Alaska, and 20 years of that working on the North Slope.... i.e., Arctic Ocean.
Jus' Say'n....


Anonymous said...

Honestly! You've got nothing better to do?

The Big Wobble said...

Thak you Karen